Special Educational Needs Pupils Disproportionately Affected as Falling Birth Rates Drive School Closures in England

Nine-year-old Blake, who is autistic and has attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), attempted to climb over the locked gates of his former primary school, St Dominic’s in Hackney, when meeting with reporters. The school closed last year due to falling pupil numbers. The playground is now overgrown, and the modular buildings stand quiet and empty. Blake found the loss of his community particularly difficult, as changes in routine and managing his emotions are more challenging for him due to his conditions.

His mother Christina said he is still struggling with the closure. “When he started his new school he started getting up four to seven times a night because of the anxiety of being in a new school with new people he doesn’t know,” she said. “He was just like a little nervous wreck.” She added that his emotions are now “playing up more,” and he views his new school as “not my school.” Although he has made some new friends, “he’s scared to open up again in case that friend gets taken away.”

Disproportionate Impact on Special Educational Needs Pupils

More than 100 state-funded schools in England have closed over the past five years, a trend many analysts attribute largely to declining birth rates. A recent National Audit Office (NAO) report indicates pupil numbers have fallen by 3% since 2018-19, with projections of a further 7% decline over the next five years. Similar patterns are emerging in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, where education is devolved.

Analysis by the BBC’s data journalism team reveals that pupils requiring special educational needs (SEN) provision—the official term in school census reporting—have been disproportionately affected by these closures. In schools that closed between 2020 and 2025, nearly 30% of children had special educational needs, compared with a rate of approximately 20% in the wider school population. Even when excluding special schools, pupil referral units, alternative provisions, and studio schools (small vocational schools), the rate of SEN pupils at closed schools remains higher.

Government Response and SEND Reforms

The BBC raised these figures with the Department for Education (DfE). In response, the DfE said it is helping schools across England to repurpose space for school-based nurseries and children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND)—a broader definition covering all special educational needs and disabilities. The department will introduce new guidelines for local leaders to respond to changing demand in the autumn.

The government set out major reforms to the SEND system in England in February, including plans for better inclusion in mainstream schools, earlier support, and removing the fight for support that many families endure. However, many parents remain anxious about what these reforms will mean. Although everyone involved agrees the system is not working, parents worry about the consequences of changing it.

Financial Pressures from Falling Enrollment

A rapid drop in pupil numbers is having a direct impact on the financial sustainability of schools, according to Luke Sibieta of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank. The number of primary pupils in England has fallen by 150,000 since 2019, a decline soon expected to be seen in secondary schools as well. Sibieta noted this has been driven by fewer children being born. The DfE projects there will be 400,000 fewer pupils by 2030.

“That has led to fewer pupils in primary schools, and that’s making it harder for primary schools to fill the quota of the number of pupils they need to be financially sustainable,” Sibieta explained. Nationally, unfilled school places rose from 10% to 14% in the last five years, according to the NAO. Sibieta noted that school funding is directly linked to pupil numbers, exacerbating the financial strain on institutions with high proportions of SEN children, who often require additional resources.

Context

Similar patterns of school closures disproportionately affecting vulnerable students have been observed in other regions. In 2023, a report by the Education Policy Institute found that schools in deprived areas of Wales were more likely to close due to falling rolls, with higher concentrations of pupils with additional learning needs. In Scotland, the closure of Govan High School in Glasgow in 2019 raised concerns about disrupted support for pupils with complex needs, as alternative placements were often farther from home communities.