UK Report Warns One in Six Young People Will Be Out of Work or Training by 2031 Without Urgent Action

A major review has warned that one in six young people will not be in education, employment or training within five years unless "urgent" action is taken. The author, former minister Alan Milburn, said the education, health and welfare systems are "no longer fit for purpose" in preparing young people for adult life. The number of 16 to 24-year-olds out of work, education or training is set to rise to 1.25 million by 2031, he warned, adding: "We are at risk of a lost generation."

Milburn is set to say in a speech later that the "first rung of the career ladder has thinned" and that for "too many young people it is now simply out of reach." He will argue that this places them in a "hopeless catch-22 where employers ask for work experience but the opportunities for young people to gain it have narrowed or gone." The warning comes amid growing concerns over the number of young people not working. Latest figures show the unemployment rate for 16 to 24-year-olds is 16.2%, the highest since 2014 and more than three times the broader unemployment rate of 5%.

Milburn was tasked with investigating why so many young people are not in employment, education or training — a group known by the acronym Neet. According to the latest official UK figures, there were 957,000 young people classed as Neet from October to December 2025, equivalent to one in eight people in that age category. More than half of those were deemed to be not looking for work. Milburn warned that number could rise to 1.25 million, or one in six young people, in the next five years unless action was taken. Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden said he commissioned the report to save a generation of young people from unemployment, welcoming its findings. "We are already taking action," he said, highlighting the government's plans to pay companies to hire young people and its moves to create more apprenticeships. McFadden also said the government is focusing on "early intervention" measures such as special educational needs support and the removal of the two-child cap on benefits. "But we know there is more to do," he added.

The findings from the former Labour health secretary's review have been heavily trailed. He told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the government spends 25 times as much on benefits for young people than it does on supporting them into work. In his interim report, Milburn challenged the narrative that young people do not want to work, saying that 84% of Neets surveyed said they want a job or training. He argues young people are not to blame for the youth unemployment crisis. "This is not a failure of young people. It is a failure of a system stuck in the past. Whether it is education or health or welfare, that system fails to enable their participation in the labour market," he is expected to say in a speech later. "Instead, all too often it ends up putting young people on a path to a life not in jobs but on benefits. This should be the priority for the government. It should be the priority for all of us."

Zaynah, 24, has suffered from physical ill health and has not had a job since leaving college. Over the past year, she has applied for more than 200 jobs but said she never heard back from any of the employers. "Getting a job is very hard because with my issues, I haven't got that much experience, I've never worked before," she added. "So I feel like it's restricting me and I'm not getting jobs." She said she was planning to start doing some volunteering so she can improve her CV. Luke, who studied product design at the prestigious Central St Martin's University, cannot find a job despite trying hard. The 23-year-old's situation mirrors that of many graduates facing a tightened labour market.

The warning echoes previous reports on youth unemployment in the UK. In 2023, the Youth Futures Foundation found that long-term Neet rates remained persistently high, particularly among disadvantaged groups. The current review, commissioned by the government, comes amid broader concerns about economic inactivity among young people, with the Office for National Statistics previously noting a rise in those neither working nor studying.